2026 Crypto New Year's Rally: Cautiously Bullish Market Sets Sail

By: blockbeats|2026/01/07 17:30:01
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Original Title: Crypto's Constructive Start to 2026
Original Author: Tanay Ved, Coin Metrics State of the Network
Original Translation: Luffy, Foresight News

TL;DR

· At the beginning of 2026, the crypto market regained its upward momentum. Despite increased geopolitical uncertainty, the price of Bitcoin rose to $94,000, and the total crypto market cap approached $3.3 trillion.

· The spot Bitcoin ETF reversed the end-of-year outflow trend on January 5, with a net inflow of around $400 million; whale sell-off behavior showed some moderation, while retail investors actively increased their chip holdings.

· The derivatives market positions exhibited a cautious bullish stance. In the options contracts expiring by the end of January, open interest for Bitcoin call options was concentrated around the $100,000 price level, while Ethereum call options were concentrated around the $3,500 price level.

A Green Start to 2026

After experiencing weeks of range-bound trading during the holiday season, the crypto market saw a strong start to the new year. The price of Bitcoin surged to $94,000, and the cryptocurrency's total market capitalization approached $3.3 trillion.

Despite the U.S. taking military action against Venezuela, escalating geopolitical tensions, the cryptocurrency market remained resilient. As gold, silver, and other precious metal prices surged at the end of the year, crypto assets also began to reclaim lost ground. Furthermore, the strength of some altcoins signaled a warming market risk appetite. However, influenced by geopolitical developments, significant global market volatility remains possible in the short term.

2026 Crypto New Year's Rally: Cautiously Bullish Market Sets Sail

Data Source: Coin Metrics and Reference Rates

Over the past month, standout coins have included Memecoins such as PEPE, BONK, privacy-focused Zcash (ZEC), and institutional credit platform Maple Finance (SYRUP). This trend indicates a resurgence in market interest in Memecoins, privacy-focused coins, and DeFi tokens with clear revenue-sharing mechanisms and visible cash flow growth.

In contrast, the performance of Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Aster (ASTER) has been less than satisfactory. The reason behind this is that with the launch of the decentralized perpetual contract trading platform Lighter (LIT) based on zero-knowledge Rollup technology and its token airdrop, market attention has shifted within the decentralized perpetual contract trading platform space. During this time, the decentralized lending protocol Aave (AAVE) also saw a decline due to intense debates within the community regarding token holder rights, revenue distribution models, and the role of Aave Labs in the decentralized autonomous organization, along with initiating multiple governance votes. This controversy reflects a widespread trend in the entire DeFi industry: top protocols represented by Uniswap and Aave are re-examining the implementation path for value return to token holders.

Institutional Fund Inflow, Whale Sell-off Cools Down

A spot Bitcoin ETF reversed the trend of fund outflows at the end of the year, with a net inflow of over $350 million on January 5, signaling institutional funds flowing back into the crypto market. In the days around New Year's Day, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of over $320 million. This trend reversal indicates that as the first quarter of 2026 begins, institutional investors' allocation interest is picking up.

The scale of institutional crypto asset reserves is also expanding: the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve added 1,287 Bitcoins, bringing the total holdings to 673,783 Bitcoins; Bitmine has increased its Ethereum reserves to 4.14 million ETH, accounting for approximately 3.4% of the total Ethereum supply.

Data Source: Coin Metrics

On-chain data shows that since the beginning of January, the token sell-off behavior of whale wallets holding 1,000-10,000 Bitcoins has noticeably tapered off, indicating a weakening selling pressure from this group. At the same time, retail investors holding less than 1 Bitcoin have been rapidly accumulating since mid-November last year. As cryptocurrency prices retreat from their highs and consolidate, retail investors are strategically positioning themselves at lower levels. The reduction in whale sell-offs combined with continued retail buying has collectively formed a favorable market scenario.

Data Source: Coin Metrics

Derivatives Market Signals Cautious Bullishness

Derivatives market positioning indicates a cautious bullish outlook for the first quarter of 2026. The following two charts display the open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts on the Deribit platform expiring on January 30, 2026, aggregated by strike price, providing a visual representation of options traders' bets on the short-term market direction.

Data Source: Coin Metrics

The options market data shows that in contracts expiring on January 30, there is a significant concentration of open interest for Bitcoin call options around a $100,000 strike price, while Ethereum call options are concentrated around a $3,500 strike price. This indicates that traders are betting on short-term upside potential in the cryptocurrency market but without displaying excessive exuberance. The market's downside protection mechanism is also in effect: open interest for Bitcoin put options is around $70,000 to $90,000, showing an overall bullish skew in open interest structure.

Data Source: Coin Metrics

Similar signals are being transmitted by the futures market. Towards the end of last year, open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures contracts saw a slight decline, followed by a rapid recovery in January. The nominal open interest on major exchanges is now close to the December peak from last year. In late December last year, due to widespread market deleveraging, Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual contract funding rates briefly entered negative territory but have since recovered to positive levels, with Ethereum's funding rate significantly outperforming Bitcoin's. Overall, the market is currently in a state of cautious bullishness, without showing signs of being overbought.

Stablecoin Fund Flows and On-Chain Activity

The flow of funds in stablecoins is a key indicator for monitoring capital flows in the crypto market. In early December last year, the stablecoin market consistently saw net inflows, but towards the end of the year, the flow reversed from positive to negative, with a net outflow of over $1 billion in a single week. As we entered January 2026, stablecoin fund flows stabilized and turned back to net inflows. If this trend can continue, it will provide strong support for the ongoing rise in the crypto market.

Data Source: Coin Metrics

On-chain activity data further confirmed the market's positive trend. With the launch of the Ethereum Fusaka upgrade in December last year, the daily transaction volume on the Ethereum mainnet hit a historical high of 2.23 million transactions, and the number of active addresses also approached a peak. At the same time, stablecoin on-chain transfer volume in December last year also hit a record high. This phenomenon indicates that the funds flowing into the crypto market are not idle but actively circulating within the ecosystem.

Conclusion

The market data for the first week of 2026 outlines a cautiously optimistic picture, with the cryptocurrency market gradually gaining ground. Institutional funds reentering, whale sell-offs cooling down, optimistic signals from the derivatives market, coupled with sustained high on-chain activity and stablecoin funds returning to net inflows, multiple positive factors are supporting the market's upward trajectory. However, it is important to be cautious as the geopolitical situation between the United States and Venezuela could still pose a potential risk of triggering global market volatility in the short term.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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