Bitcoin vs Gold: The Battle of Safe Havens Resumes

The tug-of-war between safe havens is once again favoring Bitcoin. One BTC is now trading for just over 18 ounces of gold, its highest level since January. Both assets are rising in dollars, but the cryptocurrency is currently advancing faster than the precious metal. This rebound comes as concerns about public finances and the value of currencies simultaneously fuel demand for both gold and Bitcoin. However, it remains modest on a historical scale: BTC is still worth half as much gold as it was at its peak in December 2024.

Key Points {#h-key-points}

• The BTC/gold ratio has reached about 18.17 ounces per bitcoin, its best level since January.
• Bitcoin is trading around $81,000, while gold is near $4,480 per ounce.
• The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, while the deficit is expected to reach 5.8% of GDP by 2026.
• The BTC/gold ratio remains about 56% below its record from December 2024, close to 40.9 ounces.

The BTC/gold ratio surpasses 18 ounces

The indicator is calculated by dividing the price of one bitcoin by that of one troy ounce of gold, which is about 31.1 grams. With a BTC close to $81,000 and yellow metal around $4,480, the ratio comes out slightly above 18.

According to data from TradingView, it has precisely reached 18.17, its highest level since January. In other words, one bitcoin theoretically allows you to buy a little more than 18 ounces of gold, excluding fees and price differences between markets.

This progression does not mean that gold is declining. The precious metal is still trading at high levels, but Bitcoin is temporarily advancing faster. Therefore, both assets can rise simultaneously in dollars while their power dynamics change.

However, the comparison remains unfavorable for BTC over the long term. In December 2024, when Bitcoin surpassed $106,000 and gold was around $2,650, the ratio reached a record close to 40.9 ounces. At its current level, it remains about 56% below that peak and would need to rise by about 125% to reach it again.

Debt supports the common narrative for gold and Bitcoin

Gold and Bitcoin are regularly associated with the debasement trade, or betting on currency devaluation. This strategy involves favoring assets whose supply does not directly depend on the decisions of a government or central bank, out of fear that inflation or monetary creation will reduce the value of currencies.

Bitcoin has a capped supply of 21 million units. Gold, on the other hand, is a physical asset that is difficult to produce quickly. These characteristics explain their use as diversification instruments, even though Bitcoin remains much more volatile and sensitive to movements in risky markets.

U.S. public finances fuel these concerns. Federal debt surpassed $40 trillion in August 2026. The Congressional Budget Office also forecasts a deficit of $1.9 trillion this year, or 5.8% of GDP, with net interest payments representing about 3.3% of GDP.

Institutional demand simultaneously supports both assets. According to the World Gold Council, central banks purchased more than 1,000 tons of gold per year between 2022 and 2024, then 863 tons in 2025. Publicly traded companies hold about 1.2 million bitcoins, with over 845,000 for Strategy.

The next symbolic threshold is at 20 ounces per bitcoin. An increase of about 10% in BTC against gold would be enough to reach it. Therefore, the move above 18 marks a relative recovery, but not yet a complete comeback of "digital gold" over the physical metal.

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