The recent rebound of Bitcoin (BTC) has been analyzed as being led by spot buying and short covering rather than new leverage. Analysts at Bitfinex stated that spot demand and the buyback of short positions played a key role as BTC reached multi-month highs. While the price rose by 10-11%, open interest (OI) only increased by about 4%. Open interest refers to the size of outstanding futures contracts, and when both price and open interest rise simultaneously, it suggests that leveraged buying could push prices higher. However, this time the trend is different, as the increase in open interest has been limited compared to the price rise, indicating a greater proportion of spot buying. Bitfinex also mentioned that the announcement of an expansion in the U.S. Treasury's long-term bond buyback program and the flow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs were factors contributing to the rebound. On August 19, $297.6 million flowed into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, and on August 20, a net inflow of $606.29 million was recorded. Bitfinex presented the key price range for BTC as $60,000 to $69,000, warning that if it stays above this range, investors will be in a profit state. The biggest risk currently is the influx of profitable Bitcoins into exchanges. Real interest rates also remain a variable, and if they return to levels that previously pushed BTC below $65,000, it could impact the market.
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