Black Friday Massacre on Wall Street, Crypto Market Weekend Plunge, Why Was Q1 2025 So Brutal
原文标题:《黑色星期五血洗华尔街,加密市场周末崩盘,2025 年 Q1 为何如此惨烈》
原文作者:Luke,火星财经
2025 年 3 月末,全球金融市场经历了一场剧烈的动荡。美国股市在 3 月 28 日遭遇「黑色星期五」,标普 500 指数下跌 1.97%,纳斯达克指数暴跌 2.7%,道琼斯工业指数下跌 715 点,跌幅 1.69%。这场跌势迅速波及加密货币市场,比特币(BTC)从 3 月 29 日下午的 84,000 美元下跌至 3 月 31 日早间的 81,565 美元,以太坊(ETH)跌至近期的 1,767 美元新低,Solana(SOL)则在 3 月 30 日 18 时触及 122.68 美元低点。

据 Coinglass 数据,过去 48 小时内,约 7 万名加密货币投资者爆仓,损失约 2 亿美元。这一跨市场的连锁反应不仅引发了广泛的恐慌情绪,也暴露了当前经济环境的脆弱性。本文将结合多家权威机构的观点,深入分析此次暴跌的原因,并探讨本周投资者应关注的关键事件及其潜在影响。
暴跌始末:从黑色星期五到加密周末的连锁效应
关键节点与数据
美股的暴跌始于 3 月 28 日「黑色星期五」。据 Investopedia 报道,当日标普 500 指数下跌 112.37 点至 5,580.94 点,纳斯达克指数下跌 481.04 点至 17,322.99 点,道琼斯工业指数下跌 715.80 点至 41,583.90 点。科技股领跌,七大科技巨头(包括苹果、微软、亚马逊等)市值蒸发约 5,050 亿美元,费城半导体指数跌幅达 2.95%。这是自 3 月 10 日美股崩盘以来最大的单日跌幅,标志着 2025 年第一季度末的剧烈调整。

加密货币市场紧随其后承压。比特币从 3 月 29 日下午 84,000 美元下跌 8 小时至 81,644 美元,跌幅超 3%,随后在 3 月 30 日 18 时反弹至 83,536 美元,但未能守住涨势,至 3 月 31 日 6 时跌至 81,565 美元。以太坊跌至 1,767 美元,Solana 跌至 122.68 美元。据 The Block 数据,加密货币总市值从峰值 3.9 万亿美元回落至 2.9 万亿美元,跌幅 25%,交易量从 11 月 5 日大选后的 1,260 亿美元降至 350 亿美元,萎缩约 70%。

市场情绪与资金流动
美股与加密市场的同步下挫反映了投资者对风险资产的避险情绪升温。Galaxy Research 指出,比特币与科技股联动明显,此次下跌中,加密相关股票如 MicroStrategy(MSTR)周五暴跌 10%,Coinbase Global(COIN)下跌超 6%,显示恐慌情绪迅速蔓延。InvestingHaven 分析师 Taki Tsaklanos 认为,比特币的短期支撑位在 77,000 美元,若失守可能引发更大规模清算。
暴跌诱因:多重因素交织冲击市场
宏观经济压力,通胀超预期与消费者信心下滑
美国商务部 3 月 28 日公布的 2 月核心 PCE 物价指数显示,月增 0.4%,年增 2.8%,均高于市场预期的 0.3% 和 2.6%。高盛在 3 月 31 日研报中指出,这一数据表明通胀压力顽强,可能推高核心 PCE 至 3.5%,并将 2025 年 GDP 增长预期从 1.5% 下调至 1.0%,经济衰退概率从 20% 升至 35%。密歇根大学消费者信心指数跌至 57,为 2022 年以来最低,消费者对未来一年的通胀预期升至 5%,五年期预期达 4.1%,均为数十年高点。
美联储票委的表态加剧了市场担忧。波士顿联储主席 Collins 表示,「更久维持高利率是合适的」,里士满联储主席则警告关税可能带来「更持久的通胀冲击」。高盛分析师认为,通胀超预期削弱了降息预期,资本流向避险资产,成为市场下跌的重要驱动。

政策不确定性,特朗普关税措施引发的恐慌
特朗普政府计划于 4 月 2 日公布的「对等关税」政策是此次暴跌的核心催化剂。高盛预计,关税将对所有贸易伙伴平均征收 15%,较此前预期上调 5 个百分点,可能推高进口成本并引发全球报复性行动。Evercore ISI 资深策略师 Matthew Aks 警告,「若其他国家采取报复行动,可能引发关税升级风险,进一步削弱市场信心。」State Street Global Advisors 首席投资策略师 Michael Arone 指出,「不确定性持续困扰市场,下周可能成为波动的高峰。」
Investopedia 援引专家观点称,关税政策不仅推升通胀预期,还可能削弱企业盈利能力和消费能力,尤其对科技和汽车行业影响显著。Freedom Capital Markets 首席全球策略师 Jay Woods 表示,「重大事件临近时,投资者倾向于规避风险,导致周末抛售加剧。」X 平台用户 @White7688 也提到,「BTC 因 ETF 外部资金影响,更像科技股而非避险资产。」
资金流动与市场联动
美股「黑色星期五」触发了风险资产的连锁反应。Nasdaq 的数据显示,纳斯达克指数与比特币的相关性在 2025 年初达到 0.67,其 2.7% 的跌幅迅速传导至加密市场。彭博大宗商品策略师 Mike McGlone 分析,「若标普 500 持续疲软,以太坊可能跌至 1,000 美元,比特币或下探 7.2 万美元。」金价创下新高,美国 10 年期国债收益率从周四的 4.369% 降至周五的 4.254%,显示资金加速流向避险资产。加密相关股票如 MicroStrategy 一度下跌 11%,MARA Holdings 下跌 11%。

The Block 指出,季末资金再平衡叠加下周「超级风险周」(4 月 2 日关税公布和 4 月 5 日非农数据),促使投资者提前调仓避险,资金从风险资产撤离转向黄金和美债。Galaxy Research 分析师 Alex Thorn 认为,「交易量萎缩可能预示未来更大波动,流动性减少将放大价格影响。」
市场内在风险:杠杆与交易量萎缩
InvestingHaven 预测,若比特币跌破 77,000 美元,可能触发约 3 亿美元的多头清算,进一步加剧跌幅。The Block 分析,交易量从峰值 1,260 亿美元降至 350 亿美元,表明市场参与者或在等待监管明朗,短期内缺乏买盘支撑。
本周投资者应关注的事件
随着市场进入 4 月初,投资者需密切关注以下关键事件,这些事件可能进一步影响美股和加密市场的走势:
· 4 月 2 日(周二):特朗普「对等关税」政策公布事件概述:特朗普政府计划公布对所有贸易伙伴征收平均 15% 的关税政策。高盛预计,此举将推高进口成本并可能引发全球报复性关税。若关税措施如预期严厉,美股可能下跌 3%-5%,比特币或跌破 80,000 美元支撑位;若政策力度低于预期(如排除半导体和汽车行业),市场可能迎来短暂反弹,比特币有望回升至 85,000 美元。Evercore ISI 的 Matthew Aks 指出,「市场反应将取决于关税的时机和目标产业。」
· 4 月 3 日(周三):欧洲央行 3 月货币政策会议纪要发布事件概述:欧洲央行将公布其 3 月会议纪要,可能透露对欧元区经济和通胀的最新评估,以及是否加快降息步伐。若纪要显示鸽派倾向(如进一步降息),可能提振全球风险资产,加密市场或跟随美股反弹;若维持谨慎立场,则可能加剧避险情绪,压制比特币和以太坊价格。State Street 的 Michael Arone 认为,「欧洲央行的政策方向将影响全球流动性预期。」
· 4 月 4 日(周四):美联储主席鲍威尔讲话事件概述:鲍威尔将就美国经济和货币政策发表讲话,可能回应通胀数据和关税影响。若鲍威尔释放降息信号(如回应经济放缓),美股和加密市场可能上涨 2%-3%,比特币或突破 83,000 美元;若强调维持高利率,则可能加剧抛售压力。彭博分析师 Mike McGlone 警告,「鲍威尔的语气将直接影响风险资产的短期走势。」
· 4 月 5 日(周五):美国非农就业报告发布事件概述:3 月非农就业数据将揭示美国劳动力市场的健康状况,市场预期新增就业低于 20 万,失业率可能升至 4.2%。若数据疲软(新增就业低于 15 万),将强化降息预期,利好美股和加密市场,比特币可能反弹至 86,000 美元;若数据超预期强劲,则可能推高美债收益率,打压风险资产。高盛预计,「非农数据将成为本周市场波动的高潮。」
· 4 月 5 日(周五):微软 50 周年庆及 Copilot 更新事件概述:微软将庆祝成立 50 周年,并可能公布 AI 助手 Copilot 的重大更新。若更新超出预期,可能提振科技股信心,纳斯达克指数或上涨 1%-2%,间接带动加密市场情绪;若更新平淡,则影响有限。InvestingHaven 的 Taki Tsaklanos 认为,「科技股的表现将为加密市场提供风向标。」
机构观点与市场展望
高盛:经济衰退风险上升
高盛在 3 月 31 日研报中大幅上调 2025 年关税预期,预计平均关税税率上升 15 个百分点,核心 PCE 通胀升至 3.5%,GDP 增长放缓至 1.0%,失业率年底攀升至 4.5%。该行将 12 个月内经济衰退概率提高至 35%,并预计美联储下半年将降息三次以应对增长压力。高盛分析师指出,「消费者和企业情绪疲软,经济进入脆弱阶段,政策风险的影响比近年更大。」

Galaxy Research:加密市场仍有潜力
Galaxy Research 预测,比特币 2025 年可能达到 185,000 美元,以太坊超过 5,500 美元,但前提是监管环境改善和机构采用加深。分析师 Alex Thorn 认为,「短期波动不可避免,但长期看,比特币将超越标普 500 和黄金。」该机构还预计,美国比特币 ETF 资产管理规模将在 2025 年底突破 2,500 亿美元。
InvestingHaven:技术面支撑与风险并存
InvestingHaven 分析师 Taki Tsaklanos 表示,比特币的长期看涨格局未变,77,000 美元是关键支撑位,若守住可能在 5 月迎来反弹。但若跌破,可能测试 70,000 美元。分析师警告,「市场需尊重 50% 斐波那契回撤位,否则看涨预期将失效。」
彭博与 Evercore ISI:短期波动加剧
彭博策略师 Mike McGlone 认为,「比特币与纳斯达克 100 的高相关性使其更像高贝塔资产,短期内可能跟随美股进一步下行。」Evercore ISI 的 Matthew Aks 则指出,「4 月 2 日的关税声明是重要里程碑,但不确定性不会一次性消除,市场需警惕报复性关税的连锁反应。」
总结与未来趋势
此次「黑色星期五」与加密货币周末暴跌是宏观经济压力、政策不确定性、资金流动与市场内在风险共同作用的结果。短期内,4 月 2 日的关税政策公布将成为关键转折点,若措施严厉且引发全球贸易摩擦,比特币可能跌破 80,000 美元,美股或进一步下探。然而,高盛预计的降息和 Galaxy Research 提到的机构采用可能为市场注入反弹动力。
You may also like

Token Cannot Compound, Where Is the Real Investment Opportunity?

February 6th Market Key Intelligence, How Much Did You Miss?

China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk
Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:
To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:
Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:
(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.
The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.
A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.
(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.
Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.
(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.
(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.
(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.
(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.
(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.
(IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.
(X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.
(XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.
(XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.
(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.
(XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.
(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.
(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.
(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.
(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.
This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.

Former Partner's Perspective on Multicoin: Kyle's Exit, But the Game He Left Behind Just Getting Started
Why Bitcoin Is Falling Now: The Real Reasons Behind BTC's Crash & WEEX's Smart Profit Playbook
Bitcoin's ongoing crash explained: Discover the 5 hidden triggers behind BTC's plunge & how WEEX's Auto Earn and Trade to Earn strategies help traders profit from crypto market volatility.

Wall Street's Hottest Trades See Exodus

Vitalik Discusses Ethereum Scaling Path, Circle Announces Partnership with Polymarket, What's the Overseas Crypto Community Talking About Today?

Believing in the Capital Markets - The Essence and Core Value of Cryptocurrency

Polymarket's 'Weatherman': Predict Temperature, Win Million-Dollar Payout
$15K+ Profits: The 4 AI Trading Secrets WEEX Hackathon Prelim Winners Used to Dominate Volatile Crypto Markets
How WEEX Hackathon's top AI trading strategies made $15K+ in crypto markets: 4 proven rules for ETH/BTC trading, market structure analysis, and risk management in volatile conditions.

A nearly 20% one-day plunge, how long has it been since you last saw a $60,000 Bitcoin?

Raoul Pal: I've seen every single panic, and they are never the end.

Key Market Information Discrepancy on February 6th - A Must-Read! | Alpha Morning Report

2026 Crypto Industry's First Snowfall

The Harsh Reality Behind the $26 Billion Crypto Liquidation: Liquidity Is Killing the Market

Why Is Gold, US Stocks, Bitcoin All Falling?

Key Market Intelligence for February 5th, how much did you miss out on?

Wintermute: By 2026, crypto had gradually become the settlement layer of the Internet economy
Token Cannot Compound, Where Is the Real Investment Opportunity?
February 6th Market Key Intelligence, How Much Did You Miss?
China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk
Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:
To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:
Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:
(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.
The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.
A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.
(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.
Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.
(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.
(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.
(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.
(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.
(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.
(IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.
(X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.
(XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.
(XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.
(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.
(XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.
(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.
(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.
(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.
(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.
(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.
This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.
Former Partner's Perspective on Multicoin: Kyle's Exit, But the Game He Left Behind Just Getting Started
Why Bitcoin Is Falling Now: The Real Reasons Behind BTC's Crash & WEEX's Smart Profit Playbook
Bitcoin's ongoing crash explained: Discover the 5 hidden triggers behind BTC's plunge & how WEEX's Auto Earn and Trade to Earn strategies help traders profit from crypto market volatility.