Ethereum OG Lambasts 'ETH Dilemma': Foundation Must Confront Four Major Strategic Mistakes, Once Holding the World's Most Powerful Hash Rate but Missing Out on Opportunities

By: blockbeats|2025/04/03 12:15:02
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Original Title: "Ethereum OG Goes on a Rant: 'ETH Is Doomed' - Foundation Must Admit Four Major Mistakes, Held World's Largest Hash Power in 2021"
Original Author: 0xJigglypuff, from BlockTempo at DappReview

The Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio (ETH/BTC) hit a near five-year low of 0.02193, causing Ethereum supporters and investors to feel low pressure. Recent actions by Ethereum's founder and "key figure" — Vitalik, as well as the Foundation, have also sparked dissatisfaction in the community. Institutions have recently been pessimistic about Ethereum, seeing it unlikely to have any new breakthroughs in the near term.

This great public chain that created the concept of smart contracts, advancing blockchain technology from zero to one after Bitcoin, from one to many, and the potential integration with traditional finance. Why has it declined to this extent today? This has been a recent focal point of discussion in the Ethereum community. In some early Ethereum technical discussion groups, DappReview contacted an individual who claims to have joined the Ethereum development community in 2016 and exited in 2021, (codenamed ReverseScaleDragon). In private conversations, ReverseScaleDragon elaborated on the significant decisions and influences of Ethereum's development to date. This article will integrate ReverseScaleDragon's mentions of the major reforms and decisions made by Ethereum since 2021, as well as key failure points, with DappReview supplementing the story with additional details from that time.

Ethereum's Golden Age: Early 2021

When discussing Ethereum's most glorious era, nothing surpasses the early 2021 period following DeFi Summer. Not only did roles such as "on-chain detectives" emerge to address flash loan issues, but there were also numerous innovations in tokens, such as NFTs, liquidity fragmentation, and discussions on "farming" for fixed on-chain yields. The first generation of on-chain leverage and contract protocols also appeared. It was an era of abundant genius and continuous on-chain innovation.

In my career, the highest returns I have encountered, aside from Bitcoin and Ethereum themselves, were concentrated in projects from 2020 to 2021, especially in 2021, which should be considered the era where the most projects survived. Foundational assets like Ethereum, BNB, and SOL saw their valuations break into the billions, many of which were established during that period.

Compared to the "wild" and "crazy" atmosphere of many projects in 2020, in the first half of 2021, many founders were not only truly brilliant, but they also knew what kind of products the market needed and how to survive. However, towards the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022, many projects were clearly intended to rug-pull. Therefore, I personally believe that the middle of 2021 was a watershed period. Those who entered the space after 2021 or 2022 are already part of a different atmosphere.

The Rise of the "ETH Deflation Narrative" with EIP-1559

During Ethereum's glorious days, when did it start to go downhill? In our discussions with the community and a poll initiated in the old OG group, with 117 people voting, 59 of them believed that the most significant decision and moment that impacted Ethereum was around the EIP-1559 proposal in mid-2021.

The Ethereum community began to experience division and conflict, leading to a small-scale Ethereum talent drain at the time. However, in community discussions, it was deemed that the most important impact was not the content of the proposal itself, EIP-1559, but rather the "deflationary asset" idea surrounding this proposal, which continues to significantly affect Ethereum's overall development to this day.

At that time, many Ethereum developers were barely making any money until DeFi Summer when transaction fees surged, enabling PoW miners to start earning, which may have caused some imbalance in Ethereum developers' mindset. I myself had a bit of that feeling at the time. Colleagues found that a few traders seemed to be using the extra fees mined by pools for trading, further inflating the Gas Fee. This was spread within the core developer circle as a "transaction congestion perpetual motion machine" idea, leading to a suggestion to burn these fees using EIP-1559. Of course, this proposal sparked a lot of controversy at the time, with some arguing that this idea was disconnected from reality. However, ultimately, amidst the community's two opposing factions, the "progressives" emerged victorious.

The impact of EIP-1559 is still profound and has lingering effects. At that time, many core developers believed that the "PoS" merge could be achieved in 2021. To push through EIP-1559 and future PoS advancements, they suddenly introduced a "deflationary asset" narrative. Therefore, there were many people and articles advocating for the benefits of PoS at the time, including the Ethereum-friendly media community Bankless. In that environment, it seemed that one had to catch this train to avoid being left behind by the times.

Developers believed that simply by holding Ethereum and maintaining it, they could earn interest, and the price of ETH would also appreciate. At the time, Ethereum developers all thought their careers were very promising. Looking back now, however, it seems that this vision was a bit too optimistic.

Community Politicization, Seeking "Ethereum Values" Legitimacy  

The Scales Ethdragon mentions that the "deflationary asset" idea brought by EIP-1559 to the community is actually very lethal. This not only goes against the original Ethereum's concept and the Ethereum Classic split but also reveals that Ethereum's core developers politically sought a new slogan to counter Bitcoin's "digital gold." However, such a proposal and political idealism have brought significant unintended consequences in reality.

More importantly, the controversy surrounding EIP-1559 has given rise to a community ethos: the search for "Ethereum value," where those outside the tribe are to be excluded. This has plunged Ethereum into an atmosphere full of political maneuvering.

The core developers never imagined that Ethereum would have so few users today... Now all metrics, transaction volume, and Gwei fees have hit recent lows, and the price surge brought about by the "deflationary asset" has almost entirely retraced. Considering other factors, I believe Ethereum may continue to struggle for some time.

The Perfect Miss of the AI Era Bonus  

After Ethereum completes the merge to PoS, it has also undergone several major upgrades, including the Shanghai upgrade and the Dencun upgrade. But do these upgrades really make a difference to Ethereum users? In a discussion group, we conducted a poll, with 117 people participating. Only 3 people believe Ethereum has made progress, 102 people believe there has been no progress at all, and 12 people are unsure.

Let's rewind to the eve of the Merge in 2022. How many artists were entering the NFT industry back then, complaining about Ethereum's lack of environmental friendliness? How many enterprises were seeking the integration of DeFi with traditional finance and experimenting in a sandbox, but worried that it did not align with the international ESG trend? However, these pursuits are now completely out of touch with the AI era.

Once, Ethereum had the world's largest computing power. If it could have held out until the AI era, the PoW layer could have transferred the computing power for effective computation. Then today's Ethereum might be the world's most important platform. Imagine a scene where Vitalik is a co-founder who can stand on par with Elon Musk, and his decentralized ideal that he wants to promote, would it be harder to achieve than it is now?

However, the reality is that Ethereum chose to reverse course in terms of the era. In contrast, Bitcoin, mining enterprises became the favorite computing power configuration scene for AI servers. Even though Bitcoin mining profits are limited, mining enterprise stocks and earnings are still surging alongside AI. Ethereum, on the other hand, missed out on all of this due to politicization.

Conclusion: Future Ethereum Prediction  

In the future, the value gap between Ethereum and Bitcoin may continue to widen, and Ethereum may experience a significant pullback. Ethereum's brand influence is no longer what it used to be, and even if enterprises use Ethereum, the value created will not be reflected in ETH itself but rather in the enterprise's token or stock.

ETH/BTC may continue to decline for a long time, even if many enterprises join the Ethereum protocol, it will not be a bullish factor for ETH because the narrative of the "deflationary asset" has already been shattered...

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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