Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 Expected to Rise to 8000 Points, Stock Demand Will Outpace Supply

Goldman Sachs partner and head of U.S. equity execution services, John Flood, stated that despite the expected record high in U.S. equity issuance in 2026, stock demand will continue to overwhelm supply, with the S&P 500 index likely to rise further to 8000 points. The S&P 500 closed at a record high of 7757 points last Friday, marking the 26th time this year it has set a new all-time high. Goldman Sachs anticipates that the total U.S. equity issuance in 2026 will reach approximately $700 billion, with IPO issuance slightly exceeding $225 billion and other issuances around $450 billion. Although the total issuance is record-breaking, it represents only about 1% of the Russell 3000 index market capitalization, which is roughly in line with the historical average from 2015 to 2019. The current issuance scale is closer to market normalization rather than excessive boom. Stock buybacks remain a significant force supporting market demand. U.S. companies have authorized $989 billion in buybacks year-to-date, setting a new historical high; Goldman Sachs expects the total public market stock buyback volume for 2026 to reach $1.4 trillion, significantly higher than the approximately $700 billion in primary market issuance. The current growth in equity issuance is primarily driven by demand for AI investments, with AI-related issuances accounting for about 40% of the follow-on issuance in the U.S.