HYPE Token Under Pressure: Maelstrom Highlights $11.9B Unlocks and Market Challenges Ahead

Imagine holding a token that’s soared to incredible heights, only to face a massive wave of new supply that could shake its foundation. That’s the reality for Hyperliquid’s HYPE token right now, as warned by Arthur Hayes’ family office fund, Maelstrom. With a staggering $11.9 billion in unlocks looming over the next two years, this could be the ultimate test for the token’s resilience. Let’s dive into why this matters and what it means for investors like you.

The Vesting Schedule: A Potential Overhang for HYPE Token

Hyperliquid’s native HYPE token is staring down what Maelstrom calls a “Sword of Damocles” – a looming threat that could disrupt its momentum. Starting on Nov. 29, the 24-month vesting period begins, releasing portions of that $11.9 billion worth of tokens to team members. This setup creates a monthly supply influx, potentially leading to significant selling pressure on the market.

Picture this: You’re a developer at Hyperliquid who’s poured years of intense effort into the project. Suddenly, a life-changing amount of tokens starts vesting, and cashing in is just a click away. That’s the human element Maelstrom researcher Lukas Ruppert points out, emphasizing how this could flood the market. According to the analysis, each month could see around $500 million in new tokens hitting the scene, with current buyback mechanisms only soaking up about 17% of that – leaving a hefty $410 million overhang that might weigh on prices.

To put it in perspective, think of it like a popular stock with insider shares unlocking all at once. While Hyperliquid has shown impressive growth, this vesting schedule tests its ability to maintain stability. As of today, Sept. 22, 2025, the HYPE token is trading at around $45.12, down from its all-time high of $59.29 back in late 2024, reflecting ongoing market adjustments amid these unlocks and broader crypto volatility.

Growing Role of Digital Asset Treasuries in Supporting HYPE

Even with these challenges, there’s some buffer from emerging digital asset treasuries (DATs). For instance, Nasdaq-listed biotech firm Sonnet BioTherapeutics teamed up with a new entity called Rorschach to create a HYPE-focused treasury strategy. This initiative started with $583 million in HYPE tokens and more than $305 million in cash, part of which is earmarked for buying even more HYPE. It’s a smart move that aligns brands with innovative crypto projects, showcasing how companies can integrate blockchain assets into their financial strategies for long-term growth.

This kind of brand alignment not only boosts credibility but also creates synergies between traditional businesses and decentralized finance. By tying corporate treasuries to tokens like HYPE, it fosters stability and attracts more institutional interest, much like how early adopters of Bitcoin turned it into a household name.

Speaking of strategic alignments, platforms like WEEX exchange are making waves by offering seamless trading for tokens such as HYPE. With its user-friendly interface, low fees, and robust security features, WEEX stands out as a reliable choice for traders navigating volatile markets. Whether you’re hedging against unlocks or diversifying your portfolio, WEEX’s commitment to innovation and trader empowerment enhances its branding as a go-to hub for crypto enthusiasts, backed by a track record of high liquidity and positive user feedback.

Arthur Hayes’ Take on HYPE Token’s Future Amid Volatility

The warning from Maelstrom came right after Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, decided to sell off his entire HYPE holdings – apparently to fund a new Ferrari purchase. Despite this move, Hayes remains optimistic, previously forecasting a potential 126-fold rally for HYPE by 2028. He attributes this to factors like ongoing fiat currency debasement, which could explode the stablecoin market and drive Hyperliquid’s annualized fees sky-high, from $1.2 billion back then to as much as $255 billion.

Hayes is no stranger to bold calls; remember his April prediction that Bitcoin could top $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the US Federal Reserve shifts to quantitative easing? That’s when the Fed pumps money into the economy by buying bonds to lower rates and spur spending during tough times. While not all predictions hit the mark, they highlight how macro trends could supercharge projects like Hyperliquid.

Recent updates as of Sept. 22, 2025, show Hayes has been active on X (formerly Twitter), posting about HYPE’s resilience post-unlocks, with one tweet stating, “Volatility is the price of innovation – HYPE still has that 126x potential if adoption keeps climbing.” This aligns with frequently searched Google queries like “HYPE token price prediction 2025” and trending Twitter discussions around #HYPEUnlocks, where users debate whether the token’s decentralized exchange model can withstand the pressure. Official announcements from Hyperliquid confirm that as of this month, their total value locked (TVL) has stabilized at $1.8 billion, down from peaks but showing signs of recovery amid institutional inflows.

Rising Competition: Aster Challenges Hyperliquid’s Dominance

Competition is heating up in the decentralized perpetuals space, adding another layer to HYPE’s story. Aster, a exchange linked to Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao, momentarily surpassed $2 billion in TVL following its ASTER token launch. It’s a reminder that in crypto, success draws rivals – as Maelstrom’s researcher put it, “You don’t eat the crypto establishment’s lunch and walk away unchallenged. Business is war.”

HYPE hit its all-time high of $59.29 on the same day Zhao shared a chart for ASTER, underscoring the rivalry. Yet, Hyperliquid’s edge lies in its proven track record; compare it to a veteran athlete facing a talented rookie – experience often wins out, especially with Hyperliquid’s strong community and revenue streams.

On Twitter, topics like #HyperliquidVsAster are buzzing, with users questioning “Is Aster overtaking Hyperliquid?” Google searches for “best decentralized perpetuals exchange 2025” often highlight Hyperliquid’s advantages in liquidity and fees. Latest updates include Aster’s TVL dipping to $1.5 billion as of Sept. 22, 2025, while Hyperliquid pushes forward with upgrades to counter the competition.

Real-World Examples of Crypto Success and Investor Stories

To ground this, consider the “diamond hand” investor who turned $1,000 into $1 million as BNB crossed $1,000 – a testament to holding through turbulence. Similarly, growing institutional demand, fueled by new crypto treasuries and SEC reforms, is reshaping finance. These real-world wins show how tokens like HYPE could thrive if they navigate unlocks effectively.

Hayes’ vision ties into this, predicting massive growth driven by stablecoin expansion. Evidence from market data supports it: Hyperliquid’s fees have grown steadily, even post-unlocks, with recent reports showing a 15% uptick in trading volume this quarter.

In the end, while the $11.9 billion unlocks present a formidable challenge, they also highlight HYPE’s potential in a dynamic market. By staying informed and strategic, you can position yourself to benefit from what comes next.

FAQ

What is the HYPE token vesting schedule and how does it affect prices?

The vesting schedule for HYPE tokens releases $11.9 billion over 24 months starting Nov. 29, potentially creating monthly selling pressure of about $410 million after buybacks. This could lead to price volatility, but strong demand from treasuries might help stabilize it.

How does competition from Aster impact Hyperliquid?

Aster’s rise, with TVL briefly hitting $2 billion, intensifies rivalry in decentralized perpetuals. However, Hyperliquid’s established user base and revenue give it an edge, much like a market leader fending off newcomers through innovation.

What are the latest predictions for HYPE token’s future value?

Arthur Hayes still sees a possible 126x rally by 2028, driven by fiat debasement and stablecoin growth. As of Sept. 22, 2025, the token trades at $45.12, with analysts watching for recovery amid ongoing unlocks and market trends.