Jeremy Siegel: Low Probability of Rate Hike in September, AI to Drive Value Stock Improvement
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Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the Wharton School, stated that the likelihood of a rate hike in September has decreased due to easing inflationary pressures. He forecasted that strong corporate earnings and productivity improvements driven by AI would support a rise in the stock market. In a CNBC interview on August 13, Professor Siegel remarked, "I am surprised by the earnings momentum and good news," assessing that the current market optimism is not excessive. He explained that recent liquidity shocks have not significantly shaken the stock market and that position adjustments are underway in the market. Professor Siegel evaluated the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) positively, mentioning that Goldman Sachs has lowered its monthly growth forecast for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to 0.2%. He believes that if oil prices remain in the low $80 range, the possibility of a rate hike is unlikely. Additionally, he emphasized that the effects of AI will spread through cost reductions in general businesses. Currently, while the profit margins of S&P 500 companies are at an all-time high, he pointed out that they are stagnant outside of the technology and communication sectors. Professor Siegel advised focusing on stocks with a price-to-earnings ratio (PER) around 15 times that have not yet reflected the potential benefits of AI.
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