Polymarket Settlement Dispute Intensifies, Ethereum Technical Roadmap Questioned, What's the Overseas Crypto Community Talking About Today?

By: blockbeats|2026/01/07 13:00:02
0
Share
copy
Publication Date: January 7, 2025
Author: BlockBeats Editorial Team

Over the past 24 hours, the mainstream discussion in the crypto market has focused on Polymarket's settlement dispute and potential insider risk in a geopolitical event; in terms of ecosystem development, concerns have been raised regarding Solana's network health and MEV behavior, Ethereum's ongoing fork debate, and the Perp DEX track accelerating differentiation through buyback mechanisms and liquidity compression.

I. Mainstream Topics

1. Polymarket's Settlement Dispute in Venezuela "Invasion" Market

On January 3, the U.S. carried out a military operation in Venezuela, successfully arresting President Maduro and his wife and extraditing them to the U.S. for trial. The Trump administration characterized this action as a "law enforcement operation," not a "military invasion."

On Polymarket, the prediction market related to this event (such as "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela") ultimately ruled that the "Yes" option was not valid. The reason was that this action did not meet the market's predefined definition of "invasion," which was understood as a large-scale ground military invasion in the traditional sense, rather than a rapid, pinpoint strike.


This settlement outcome sparked strong backlash in the community, with many users accusing it of "arbitrary rule interpretation" and "post hoc backtracking," pointing fingers at the UMA-dominated dispute resolution mechanism. A large number of posts jokingly referred to "the house always wins" and further amplified doubts about the fairness and credibility of the prediction market. The related discussion quickly surpassed a million views, becoming the most central topic of the day.

2. Insider Trading Suspicions Arising from the Maduro Event

Even more controversially, in the hours leading up to the military operation, multiple new wallets appeared on-chain, placing large bets on "Maduro will step down by January 31" or "the U.S. will intervene in Venezuela" with only about a 6%–8% probability. One account wagered around $35,000 and ultimately made over $400,000 in profit.


The community immediately questioned the possibility of insider information leakage, not ruling out potential ties to the government or intelligence systems. While some argued that prediction markets themselves have limited liquidity and high noise levels, making it difficult to draw conclusions from a single transaction, the precision of the timing was still considered "too coincidental."


This event has sparked a higher-level discussion, with some lawmakers proposing restrictions or bans on government officials participating in prediction markets to mitigate potential insider trading risks. When combined with the aforementioned settlement dispute, Polymarket's institutional risk has become the absolute focus of today's discussion.

3. Berachain Ecosystem TVL Cliff-like Plummet

Another widely circulated piece of news comes from Berachain. This L1 project, which was highly hyped in 2025 (with high-profile events and a TVL that once exceeded 3 billion USD), has seen its total value locked drop to around 184 million USD, a decrease of over 90%.


Community discussions generally attribute this to "insufficient product-market fit after the hype waned" and "incentive decay leading to rapid capital outflow." Some users jokingly refer to it as the "Bear-chain" (due to the sound similarity between Berachain and bear chain). Comments from influential figures like CZ are also focused on the same point: that marketing cannot sustainably replace a solid product and cash flow. Such discussions reflect a market-wide reassessment of the long-term viability of new public chains.

4. TON Team Sell-off Rumors

TON's price has retraced around 66% from its peak, with some posts attributing this to team sell-off behavior, sparking a brief discussion. However, overall, the discussion's heat is noticeably lower compared to Polymarket and Berachain, leaning more towards being seen as an isolated case within the broader market correction cycle and not forming a sustained controversy.

II. Mainstream Ecosystem Updates

1. Solana

Block Packing Issue Raises Network Health Concerns

New tools (such as ibrl.wtf) have revealed that some validators are employing a strategy known as late packing, intentionally delaying transactions to be packed at the end of a block to maximize MEV extraction rewards.


The community generally believes that this behavior is eroding Solana's core technological advantage: transforming its original real-time transaction streaming selling point into a "burst" state, where the state is only visible at the end of a slot, affecting transaction real-time visibility and breaking execution fairness.
Jito governance lead @DrNickA described it as a "crisis moment for Solana" and pointed out that such behavior could directly hinder the development of on-chain order books (CLOB) and other advanced applications. He called for punishing malicious validators through delegation coordination at the staker level, or guiding delegation to nodes with better IBRL scores (such as Jito SOL).


The community consensus is that short-term reliance must be on social coordination, while long-term solutions should involve protocol-level proposals (such as BAM/MCP) to technologically enforce constraint mechanisms. This topic's heat is relatively high, reflecting the market's collective anxiety about whether Solana's long-term value proposition will be eroded by MEV behavior.

2.Ethereum

Concurrent Progress of Fork Choice-enforced Inclusion Lists and Anti-Censorship Upgrade

Former EF researcher Dankrad Feist publicly questioned Vitalik's emphasis on "trust minimization and resilience-first" approach, suggesting that this might steer Ethereum towards an "improved version of Bitcoin-style digital gold," potentially sacrificing its potential to support real economic activities. He advocated for prioritizing high-value DeFi activities back to L1.

Multicoin Capital partner Kyle Samani's criticism was more direct, stating that EF's development focus is not centered around serving user needs but rather revolves around Vitalik's personal vision. This viewpoint quickly sparked polarized reactions: one side supporting a long-termist approach focused on sovereignty and anti-censorship, while the other side expressing concerns that Ethereum is gradually deviating from usability and market competitiveness.

In parallel to the philosophical debate, there has been a technically positive development. Soispoke.eth analyzed on the Ethereum Magicians forum that EIP-7805 (FOCIL: Fork Choice-enforced Inclusion Lists) is poised to be included in the Hegotá upgrade (successor to Glamsterdam).

FOCIL aims to enhance censorship resistance, transaction finality, and execution neutrality by allowing multiple validators to enforce the inclusion of valid transactions. The proposal was previously unable to enter Glamsterdam due to testing scope control issues, but now it has gained more support at the core developer level, with a ready prototype, believed to benefit regular users, L2, institutional participants, and the application layer simultaneously.

3.Perp DEX: Lighter's Positive Signal

Lighter officially launched an on-chain buyback mechanism for $LIT using protocol fees, with the related buyback publicly traceable through a dedicated treasury account. The community widely views this as a rare real value capture model that can scale linearly with platform usage, and the recent price performance of $LIT is seen as a direct response to this.

Simultaneously, market maker spreads and margin analysis indicate a significant compression of short-term profit margins for top market makers such as Selini Capital and Jump Crypto. Data shows that Jump's trading volume share in latency arbitrage is as high as 47%, and since September to October 2025, overall market maker margins have consistently narrowed, with mechanized market-making strategies facing increased pressure under a 0.2 bps fee structure.

4. Other Project Updates

Infinex: The founder disclosed a monthly burn rate of about $1.1 million (for a team of around 60 people), leading some in the community to question whether the staff salaries were too high. However, a subsequent clarification revealed that this number included infrastructure and various operational costs, which quickly resolved the dispute.

Tempo: Released the TIP-20 token standard, aimed at stablecoins and payment optimizations, supporting transfer memos, compliance policies, yield distribution, and "paying Gas fees in any stablecoin." Tempo has already established partnerships with AllUnity, Bridge, LayerZero, and others.

MegaETH (MEGA): Included in Coinbase's listing roadmap, seen by the community as a positive signal of mainstream recognition for this high-performance L2 solution. Speculation is now rife about an upcoming Token Generation Event (TGE).

TON: Old news resurfaced once again: the team allegedly sold around $450 million in tokens in 2025, with some users seeing this as a key reason for the price plummeting by around 66% from its all-time high. Discussions are mostly characterized by humor and retrospective analysis.

You may also like

Token Cannot Compound, Where Is the Real Investment Opportunity?

The next chapter in the crypto industry will undoubtedly be written by Crypto-empowered Stocks.

February 6th Market Key Intelligence, How Much Did You Miss?

1. On-chain Flows: $508.2M USD inflow to Ethereum today; $390.8M USD outflow from Arbitrum 2. Biggest Gainers/Losers: $HBTC, $AIO 3. Top News: Current Bitcoin weekly RSI oversold signal comparable to June 2022

China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


Former Partner's Perspective on Multicoin: Kyle's Exit, But the Game He Left Behind Just Getting Started

Kyle knew his game, so he decided to focus on playing the game he was good at and interested in.

Why Bitcoin Is Falling Now: The Real Reasons Behind BTC's Crash & WEEX's Smart Profit Playbook

Bitcoin's ongoing crash explained: Discover the 5 hidden triggers behind BTC's plunge & how WEEX's Auto Earn and Trade to Earn strategies help traders profit from crypto market volatility.

Wall Street's Hottest Trades See Exodus

This time there is no single triggering factor, but rather market anxiety about asset valuation, with many already skeptical of these valuations being too high, leading to investors choosing to retreat almost simultaneously.

Popular coins

Latest Crypto News

Read more