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The Fed Faces Communication Challenges as Post-Meeting Data Dumps Increase
BlockBeats News, December 10th. While the Fed's expected rate cut is widely seen as being accompanied by hawkish guidance, the subsequent release of supplemental data after the meeting may quickly render its economic and rate forecasts outdated, making the market skeptical of any signals.
The Fed is expected to implement a rate cut in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time. Policymakers must both address the recent government shutdown-induced data gap and engage in a game of risks facing the economy, with divergent views. Given the internal divisions among policymakers—some skeptical of the need for further rate cuts due to persistently high inflation, while others believe that without lowering the cost of borrowing, the economy and job market may weaken—the expected rate cut may come with a vague description of the rate path for next year, leaning towards a hawkish stance.
Alongside the latest rate decision, the summary of the new quarterly economic projections released will show Fed officials' expectations for the 2026 economic outlook and the rate path they deem appropriate. However, these forecasts for the next year are often quickly outdated by subsequent data releases, with limited indications of the pace of policy actions.
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