VC Asset Bubble History: Why Does Every New Coin Seem to Go to Zero?

By: blockbeats|2025/03/21 13:45:01
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Original Title:《The Great Crypto VC Bubble: Why Every New Token Trends to Zero (Part 1)》
Original Author: 0xLouisT
Original Translator: DeepTech TechFlow

Shitcoins are continuing to bleed out — why? Is it due to high FDV, or the CEX listing strategy? Should Binance and Coinbase just directly TWAP their funds into new shitcoins? The real culprit isn't new — it all traces back to the 2021 crypto VC bubble.

In this article, I will dissect how we got to where we are today. In the upcoming articles, I will explore the impact of this phenomenon on projects, the liquid market, possible future trends, and provide some advice for entrepreneurs in the current environment.

ICO Craze (2017-2018)

The crypto industry is fundamentally a highly liquid industry — projects can mint tokens at any time, these tokens can represent anything, regardless of its stage. Before 2017, most trading activity happened on public markets, where anyone could directly purchase tokens through centralized exchanges.

Then, the ICO (Initial Coin Offering) bubble arrived: a wild speculative era quickly exploited by scammers. Its ending was like any other bubble: lawsuits, fraud, and regulatory crackdowns. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) intervened, almost making ICOs illegal. To evade the U.S. judicial system, founders had to seek other ways to raise funds.

VC Asset Bubble History: Why Does Every New Coin Seem to Go to Zero?

VC Craze (2021-2022)

As retail investors were forced out, founders turned to institutional investors. From 2018 to 2020, the crypto VC space gradually expanded — some companies were pure VC firms, while others were hedge funds, allocating a small part of their Assets Under Management (AUM) to VC bets. At the time, investing in shitcoins was a contrarian move — many believed these tokens would eventually go to zero.

Then came 2021. The bull market rapidly skyrocketed the portfolios of VC investments (at least on paper). By April, many funds had already seen returns of 20x or even 100x. Crypto VC suddenly looked like a "money printer." Limited Partners (LPs) flocked in, eager to catch the next wave. VC firms raised new funds, 10 times, even 100 times the size of previous ones, believing they could replicate these astounding returns.

Source: Galaxy Research

In addition, there are also some psychological reasons that explain why venture capital is so attractive to LPs. I have analyzed this in detail in a previous article: The True Reason Venture Capital Prevails Over Liquidity in the Crypto Space.

Hangover Period (2022-2024): The Dilemma and Transformation of Crypto Venture Capital

Then, in quick succession came 2022: the Luna collapse, 3AC bankruptcy, FTX closure—billions of dollars in paper gains evaporated overnight.

Contrary to popular belief, most VCs did not cash out at the market peak. Like everyone else, they went through the market crash downturn together.

And now, they face two major challenges:

· Disappointed Limited Partners (LPs): LPs who once cheered for 100x returns are now demanding quick exits, putting pressure on the funds to de-risk early and lock in gains.

· Too Much Capital: There is a significant amount of untapped venture capital (dry powder) in the market, but high-quality projects are in short supply. Many funds, to meet investment thresholds and pave the way for the next funding round, choose to invest in economically unreasonable projects rather than return capital to LPs.

Today, most crypto VCs are in a dilemma: unable to raise new funds, holding a pile of low-quality projects destined to follow the "high FDV to zero" script. Under LP pressure, these VCs have shifted from long-term vision supporters to short-term exit chasers. They frequently sell off large-cap tokens supported by VCs (such as alternative L1s, L2s, and infrastructure tokens), whose high valuations were artificially inflated by themselves.

In other words, the incentive structure and timeframe of crypto VCs have undergone significant changes:

2020: VCs were contrarians, capital-constrained, focused on long-term development. 2024: VCs have become crowded, capital-abundant, and more short-sighted.

I believe that the performance of VC funds from 2021 to 2023 will mostly fall below expectations. VC returns follow a power-law distribution, where a few winners make up for the majority of losers. But due to forced early selling, this pattern will be disrupted, leading to overall weakened performance.

If you want to learn more about average venture capital returns, I have previously written a related article.

It is not difficult to understand why more and more founders and communities are skeptical of venture capital. The incentive structure and timeline of venture capital are not aligned with the founders' goals, leading to a shift in the following trends:

· Community-Driven Funding: Projects are more inclined to raise funds through community support rather than relying on venture capital.

· Long-Term Support with Liquidity: Compared to venture capital, liquidity is gradually becoming the primary source of long-term support for tokens.

Evaluating Liquidity / Venture Capital Cycles

Tracking the capital flow between venture funding and the liquid market is crucial. I use an indicator to assess the state of the venture capital market. While it is not perfect, it is very informative.

I assume that venture capital will linearly deploy 70% of its funds over three years—this seems to be the trend for most venture capital.

VC 3y Linear Deployment Visualization

Based on the venture capital fundraising data provided by @glxyresearch, I applied a weighted sum model, combining 16 quarters of deployment rates to estimate the remaining untapped funds (dry powder) in the system. By the fourth quarter of 2022, around $48 billion of venture capital funds remained undeployed. However, with a stall in new fundraising, this number has halved at least and continues to decrease.

VC Undeployed Capital Visualization Chart

Next, I will compare the remaining venture capital funds each quarter with TOTAL2 (total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin). Since venture capital typically invests in altcoins, TOTAL2 is the best proxy indicator. If venture capital funds are disproportionately high relative to TOTAL2, the market will not be able to absorb future token generation events (TGEs). Normalizing this data can reveal the cyclical nature of the liquidity/venture capital ratio.

Crypto Venture Capital and the Liquid Market: Cyclical Patterns and Future Outlook

Usually, when in the "VC euphoria" range, the risk-adjusted return of the liquid market tends to outperform venture capital. The "VC capitulation" range, however, is more complex—it may signify VCs giving up or indicate an overheated liquid market.

Like all markets, crypto venture capital and the liquid market follow cyclical patterns. The excess capital accumulated in 2021/2022 is rapidly being depleted, making fundraising more challenging for founders. At the same time, cash-strapped VC firms are becoming more selective in trades and terms.

I will end it here, and the next article will delve deeper into the impact of this phenomenon on the liquid market.

Summary

In recent years, VC fund performance has been lackluster, with VC firms shifting towards short-term sell-offs to return capital to LPs. Many prominent crypto VC firms may not survive in the coming years.

The misalignment between VC firms and founders is driving founders to seek alternative financing channels.

The oversupply of VC capital has led to irrational resource allocation, and I will delve into this in detail in subsequent articles.

To be continued...

Original Article Link

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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