Can Bitcoin reach $227,000 to $378,000?

The $227,000 to $378,000 mark may sound far-fetched when looking at Bitcoin trading around $61,000. However, these are not arbitrary figures. According to an analysis reposted by Investing from Tiger Research, this price range is built on the assumption that in the long term, Bitcoin could absorb approximately 15% to 25% of the total market value of gold, an asset that serves as a global store of value.

The World Gold Council states that the total amount of gold mined throughout human history was valued at approximately $31 trillion by the end of 2025. Tiger Research uses an illustrative market capitalization of about $31.8 trillion and a fixed Bitcoin supply of 21 million coins to build this valuation framework. Taking 15% of $31.8 trillion and dividing it by 21 million BTC results in approximately $227,143 per BTC; taking 25% brings the figure to about $378,571. Simply put, this is a calculation of "what Bitcoin would be worth if it replaced only a portion of gold's position in global asset portfolios."

Why does this argument carry weight? Because Bitcoin possesses three characteristics that interest many institutional investors: a design-based scarce supply, the ability to be held in custody and transferred across borders, and data transparency that is far superior to many traditional assets. In its 2026 outlook report, Tiger Research also emphasizes that Bitcoin could continue to strengthen by absorbing the "monetary premium" of gold and its role as a store of value. In other words, if the market increasingly views Bitcoin as a type of "digital gold with global liquidity," the gold-based valuation model will be cited more and more frequently.

But a good SEO article shouldn't just present the optimistic side. Even Tiger Research, in its Q2/2026 report, set a medium-term target of $143,000, which is significantly lower than the $227,000 to $378,000 scenario. Furthermore, CoinShares recently recorded three consecutive weeks of outflows from digital asset investment products totaling $4.21 billion, showing that Bitcoin's path upward is not linear. Therefore, the $227,000 to $378,000 price range should be understood as a long-term scenario if the process of capital reallocation from gold to Bitcoin truly occurs, rather than a forecast for the next few quarters.

A simpler way to understand this is to imagine a large fund currently having $10 billion allocated to gold. If that fund reduces its gold weighting over several years and shifts a small portion to Bitcoin, such an action might seem insignificant at the individual fund level, but when aggregated globally, it will create very strong demand. That is why macroeconomic valuation models for Bitcoin often look at the scale of the gold, bond, or broad currency markets, rather than just looking at short-term price charts.

For individual investors, the important lesson is to distinguish between a "possible scenario" and "when the price will happen." The $227,000 to $378,000 scenario only becomes more credible when three things happen simultaneously: sustainable ETF capital inflows, looser macroeconomic liquidity, and the belief that Bitcoin can serve as a store of value similar to gold in the eyes of both institutions and households. If only one of these factors is present, the valuation model remains theoretically correct, but it may take the market a very long time to reflect it in the price.