Is Bitcoin Overvalued?

The question “Is Bitcoin overvalued?” sounds simple, but answering it with a mere yes or no based on a price level is often misleading. As of June 10, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $61,265, which is significantly lower than its historical peak from the previous year. Looking only at the chart, many would argue, “It has already dropped by more than half, so how could it still be expensive?” However, professional investors rarely rely on intuition; they use on-chain metrics to determine whether the current price is high or low relative to the actual cost basis of the entire market.

The most popular metric is MVRV. Glassnode defines MVRV as the ratio between market cap and realized cap, comparing the current market value of all Bitcoin to the value calculated based on the last time each coin moved on-chain. Simply put, MVRV helps estimate whether Bitcoin is trading above or below the “aggregate cost basis” of its holders. If the divergence is too large, the market is often approaching an overheated state; if the gap narrows, the market is moving closer to its fair value.

Current data does not suggest that Bitcoin is in an “extreme bubble” state. According to CryptoQuant’s charts, Bitcoin’s MVRV is currently around 1.15 while the price is approximately $61,200. CryptoQuant also notes that MVRV values above 3.7 have historically recurred at cycle peaks, when the unrealized profits of most investors become excessive and the risk of widespread profit-taking increases. From this perspective, the current region is far from historical overheating.

An additional signal is the MVRV Z-Score. Glassnode describes this indicator as a tool to assess when an asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to its “fair value,” while CoinDesk reports that following the sharp decline in early June 2026, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is approaching its historical bottom near the 0 mark. In layman’s terms, after the sell-off, Bitcoin has begun to approach a region that the market previously considered fair value or an accumulation zone, rather than a state of excessive euphoria.

Another concept to understand is realized price, which is the average price at which all Bitcoin was last traded. CoinGlass describes realized price as the average price at which all BTC was last transacted, reflecting the average cost basis of holders. If the market price is only slightly higher than the realized price, the context is very different from when the market price is many times higher than the cost basis. Therefore, calling Bitcoin “overvalued” at the current moment would be inappropriate using classic on-chain standards. More accurately, one could say Bitcoin still holds a premium over its cost basis, but not a premium indicative of cyclical euphoria.

However, “not too high according to on-chain data” does not mean “will rise immediately.” CoinShares continues to record three consecutive weeks of outflows from digital asset investment products, while Bitcoin remains under pressure from geopolitical factors and risk-off sentiment. This means that even if on-chain valuations have become less expensive, the price could remain weak in the short term if liquidity continues to leave the market. On-chain data helps answer questions about valuation heat, but it does not fully replace cash flow and macroeconomic analysis.

For an easy-to-understand example, imagine MVRV as comparing the current selling price of an entire apartment complex with the total cost basis at which residents bought in previously. When the market price is much higher than the cost basis, everyone has significant profits, and selling pressure can easily increase. When the market price is only slightly higher, the market is no longer in a state of extreme euphoria. Therefore, with the available data, the fairest answer is: Bitcoin is no longer in an overvalued zone according to familiar on-chain indicators, but it remains a highly volatile asset that is still heavily dependent on ETFs, liquidity, and macroeconomic risks.