The Argument for Bitcoin Hitting a New Peak Within the Next Three Years

The assertion that "Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high within the next three years" is compelling because it provides investors with a narrative long enough to follow, yet close enough to maintain expectations. In an Investing article, Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures, suggests that Bitcoin may still trend lower in the short term, but that is no reason to panic. According to him, past Bitcoin cycles have typically seen capitulation in the middle of the cycle, followed by strong growth over the next three years before the next bubble forms. He even suggests that investors could be satisfied if Bitcoin exceeds $200,000 by 2029.

The core of this argument lies in cyclical thinking. On his personal website and in his book, Bitcoin Supercycle, Terpin describes the "four seasons of Bitcoin," suggesting that Bitcoin experiences growth, euphoria, correction, and accumulation seasons similar to real estate or stocks. This perspective is not new in the crypto space, but Terpin is one of the individuals who has translated it into a long-term investment framework that is easier for retail investors to understand.

It is worth noting that Terpin is not extreme in a "buy now, it will rise tomorrow" sense. Both CoinDesk and Forbes have noted that he previously warned that Bitcoin could face another painful dip, potentially returning to the $50,000 level or lower before establishing a sustainable bottom. As of late April 2026, he still maintained that Bitcoin had not yet hit bottom, suggesting it could reach around $57,000 in October and would not set a new peak within 2026. Therefore, Terpin's "new peak in three years" argument is actually a long-term thesis accompanied by the acknowledgment that 2026 could still be very difficult.

From an investment perspective, this is a crucial point. Many people hear a bullish forecast and immediately deploy all their capital. Meanwhile, the person making the forecast is saying that the market could drop further before rising. Terpin also emphasizes that this is the first cycle where Bitcoin price has fallen below the price of the previous halving from its all-time high, and he attributes this to the law of diminishing returns: subsequent cycles will still grow, but the magnitude will not be as explosive as it was in 2012–2013.

The most practical example for retail investors is that instead of trying to time the exact bottom, you can divide your capital into multiple parts over time. If Terpin's hypothesis is correct, the greatest reward will come from remaining present in the 2027–2029 cycle, rather than from buying exactly at the lowest candle in October 2026. Conversely, if you go all-in too early and cannot withstand another 10% to 20% drop, you are very likely to exit the game before the long-term story unfolds.

So, should you believe the three-year mark completely? The answer is that you should not absolutize any individual forecast. However, Terpin's argument is useful in that it forces investors to think within a sufficiently long timeframe, accept that recovery does not mean a straight line upward, and separate long-term prospects from short-term noise. With Bitcoin hovering around the $61,000 level, investors who want to follow this scenario need to be patient rather than impulsive.