a16z: The Scarcity of Social Infrastructure for Cultivating Judgment in the AI Era

Tim Sullivan, a partner at a16z, points out that the reduction in content production costs due to AI has led to a surge of low-quality content. Historically, every decrease in production costs has been accompanied by cultural controversies. The article cites social science research suggesting that "taste" is not a singular ability, but rather a combination of various mechanisms, including successful judgment, information acquisition, and long-term training that form professional judgment. Research from Columbia University shows that social influence and path dependence significantly affect whether a work becomes a hit, and even experts find it difficult to predict success consistently. The article also mentions sociologist Ron Burt's theory of "structural holes," which posits that innovative capacity often arises from cross-community interactions. While AI can quickly access information, it struggles to replace the tacit knowledge and experience that humans accumulate across multiple social networks. Sullivan believes that after the widespread adoption of AI, the role of humans will shift towards validation and judgment, and that judgment needs to be cultivated through apprenticeship, feedback, and long-term practice. If companies weaken their training systems due to AI replacing entry-level positions, they may reduce costs in the short term but risk a future shortage of talent with judgment skills. Therefore, what is truly scarce in the AI era is not "taste," but the talent, networks, and social infrastructure necessary for cultivating judgment.