Bitcoin: US GDP Revives Hopes for Fed Rate Cuts

No revisions, but a clear slowdown. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United States grew by 1.5% at an annualized rate in the second quarter of 2026, according to the second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This figure is the same as that published at the end of July but lower than the 2.1% recorded in the first quarter. The American economy continues to grow, without showing a real rebound. This intermediate situation could weigh on the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions and, by extension, on liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin.

Key Points {#h-key-points}

• The BEA confirms an annualized growth of 1.5% in the second quarter, with no revisions from the initial estimate.
• In European convention, this 1.5% annualized growth equates to about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter growth.
• Growth below potential strengthens the case for accommodative FOMC members in favor of a rate cut.
• Bitcoin reacts to this data through the liquidity channel, amplified by institutional flows from spot ETFs.

A real growth of about 0.4% in the United States {#h-a-real-growth-of-about-0-4-in-the-united-states}

The figure of 1.5% may seem more significant than it actually is. Unlike Insee or Eurostat, the BEA presents quarterly growth at an annualized rate. It projects the growth recorded between April and June over twelve months.

In European convention, the American economy has therefore grown by about 0.4% over the quarter. This pace remains positive but indicates a slowdown compared to the first three months of the year.

However, the composition of GDP offers a more solid picture than the overall figure. Household consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of American activity, has accelerated. Business investments have also remained strong, particularly in equipment, software, and infrastructure related to artificial intelligence.

Conversely, the increase in imports, the reduction in inventories, and the decline in public spending have weighed on growth. Final sales to domestic private buyers, an indicator that excludes these volatile elements, have thus increased by 4.2% at an annualized rate. Private demand remains robust despite the apparent weakness of GDP.

The absence of revision between the two estimates confirms the overall figure, even if some details of its composition may still evolve. The BEA will publish a third estimate at the end of September.

The Fed and Bitcoin Facing Economic Slowdown {#h-the-fed-and-bitcoin-facing-economic-slowdown}

A growth of 1.5% does not signal a recession, but it may strengthen the arguments in favor of a rate cut. The Federal Reserve must, however, balance its dual mandate: supporting employment while sustainably bringing inflation back to 2%.

If activity and the labor market slow without a new acceleration in prices, the Fed will have more room to ease its monetary policy. Conversely, persistent inflation could force it to maintain high rates despite moderate growth.

For Bitcoin, the issue mainly lies on the liquidity side. Lower rates reduce the yield on risk-free investments, can weaken the dollar, and generally encourage investors to return to volatile assets.

Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, this relationship with monetary expectations has strengthened, as a growing share of demand comes from institutional players sensitive to the cost of capital.

A too abrupt slowdown would, however, have the opposite effect. In the event of fears of recession or financial crisis, investors generally seek to recover liquidity and first sell risky assets.

With positive but moderate growth and still solid private demand, the American GDP is therefore in a zone quite favorable to Bitcoin: sufficiently low to maintain hopes for monetary easing, but not low enough to immediately provoke fears of a recession.