Black Sea Port Shutdown Crashes Russia's Grain Market

The shutdown of key grain terminals in the Azov-Black Sea basin, through which up to 88% of Russia's maritime grain exports passed, has triggered a crisis in the Russian agricultural sector. The paralysis of port logistics has led to a collapse in domestic prices, overflowing silos, and the disruption of international contracts. Over the past week, the price of fourth-class feed and food wheat in southern Russia has decreased by 19% to 8,900-10,000 rubles per ton. The forecast for maritime exports in August has been reduced from 3.1 million to 1.8 million tons. Prices have also fallen by 8% in central Russia and by 3% in the Volga region. The expected gross harvest for 2026 is projected at 140 million tons, with the export potential for wheat in the 2026/27 season reduced to 44.6 million tons. Baltic ports can only handle 20% of the lost volumes, while the necessary infrastructure is lacking in the Caspian Sea and the Far East. The export price of Russian wheat in Novorossiysk has fallen to $215 per ton FOB. Owners of blocked terminals are losing between $50 million and $70 million per month. The lack of working capital threatens the autumn sowing campaign. Foreign buyers are entering into long-term contracts with competitors, which could lead to Russia's final loss of global markets.

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