Crypto: Tax Rules Miss the Core of Flow

International tax rules still only see a small part of on-chain crypto activity. Chainalysis estimates that at least $457 billion in potentially taxable flows will be observed in 2025 across six major blockchains. The OECD's CARF would only directly cover 14% of this. The remaining 86% flows notably through DeFi, peer-to-peer transfers, staking, or payments.

In brief

• Chainalysis estimates $457 billion in potentially taxable crypto activity in 2025.
• The CARF would only directly cover 14% of the on-chain flows studied.
• DEXs, P2P, staking, and many payments remain largely outside the framework.

Crypto Already Represents $457 Billion

The CARF is just starting to take shape in several countries. France, for example, is preparing to extend DAC8 with the new international tax framework on cryptos. Chainalysis has looked at what circulates directly on the blockchains.

Its estimate reaches $457 billion for 2025. The figure includes realized capital gains, certain revenues from mining, staking, or lending, as well as payments made in crypto.

The United States leads significantly with $112.6 billion. The European Union totals $125.1 billion. France accounts for about $9.4 billion, divided between $1.7 billion in revenues, $2.5 billion in gains, and $5.2 billion in payments.

Six networks are included in the calculation: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Tron, BNB Smart Chain, and Base. Therefore, part of the market is missing. Operations conducted within centralized exchanges do not appear in these $457 billion. Chainalysis thus considers its estimate as a floor.

The CARF Mainly Sees What Goes Through Intermediaries

The Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework was created by the OECD to automate the exchange of tax information between countries. Dozens of jurisdictions are starting to collect data this year. The first international exchanges are expected to arrive in 2027. France is among the countries engaged in the framework, which had already gathered 47 states at its political launch.

The system works quite well when a user goes through an exchange or broker. These companies generally know the identity of their clients. They can record sales, purchases, and transfers, then transmit this information to tax administrations.

The problem begins when the activity leaves these platforms.

According to Chainalysis, only 14% of the potentially taxable on-chain flows studied correspond to operations directly covered by the CARF. The remaining 86% includes exchanges on DEXs, peer-to-peer transfers, revenues generated directly on-chain, and many payments.

A private wallet has no compliance service. A decentralized protocol does not either, in many cases. Authorities thus recover part of the puzzle. Not necessarily all the pieces.

Private Wallets Remain Difficult to Track for Tax Purposes

The problem does not only come from DeFi. A user can buy bitcoin on a platform, send it to their own wallet for several years, and then sell it elsewhere.

The exchange that receives the BTC knows the selling price. It does not always know the initial purchase price. The calculation of the capital gain becomes less obvious.

CARF is also not retroactive. Older transactions, certain staking revenues, mining rewards, or crypto loans may therefore be missing from the data received by the tax authorities.

Chainalysis does not call for the system's removal. The company rather estimates that administrations will need to complement platform declarations with direct blockchain analysis.

The topic is already becoming sensitive in Europe. In France, Bull Bitcoin has appealed to the Council of State against the application of DAC8, particularly due to the data collected on crypto holders. Authorities want to see more. Crypto still allows for a significant part of the activity to be moved outside traditional intermediaries.