Illegal Premier League Betting Could Reach USD $1.09 Billion in the UK

The Betting and Gaming Council estimates that unlicensed operators could capture up to USD $1.09 billion in Premier League bets this season, although it did not publish the methodology for its projection. The warning comes as the UK prepares to increase the remote betting tax by April 2027 and clubs eliminate front betting sponsorships.

• The BGC projects up to USD $1.09 billion in illegal Premier League betting during this season.
• The figure could rise to around USD $1.36 billion in the next campaign, according to the organization, following the anticipated tax increase in April 2027.
• The organization did not publish methodology nor identify a responsible research source for these specific estimates.

The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC), the main trade body for the UK betting and gaming industry, estimates that unlicensed operators could capture up to USD $1.09 billion in Premier League bets during the season that began on August 21, 2026. The organization also estimates that around USD $27 million was wagered with criminal operators during the first weekend, in a period marked by tax changes and new commercial restrictions for clubs.

The projection, released on August 24, was not accompanied by public methodology or the identification of a research firm responsible for calculating it. The BGC also stated that an increase of USD $272 million would raise the estimated volume to approximately USD $1.36 billion next season, following the introduction of a new rate for remote betting under the General Betting Duty, scheduled for April 1, 2027.

A Projection Without Published Methodology

The statement uses varying degrees of certainty to describe its figures: it presents the USD $1.09 billion as an expected outcome, the increase of USD $272 million as a forecast, and maintains that the analysis suggests between USD $20 million and USD $27 million wagered each weekend with unlicensed operators. This formulation makes it clear that these are estimates, but does not allow for reconstruction of how the corresponding value exclusively for the Premier League was reached.

The communication itself also offers two versions regarding the first weekend within three paragraphs. It first indicates that around USD $27 million had already been wagered with criminal operators; then it notes that the start of the competition would likely be at the upper end of the range of USD $20 million to USD $27 million.

The figures attributed to external researchers refer to broader phenomena and not specifically to Premier League betting. The BGC cites H2 Gambling Capital, which predicts that the total wagered with illegal operators in the UK will nearly double, from around USD $23.2 billion to over USD $45 billion by 2028.

The body also mentions a study by WARC indicating that unregulated operators currently account for nearly half of UK advertising spending on gambling. None of these measurements quantify betting on the English league, so they do not serve as direct support for the USD $1.09 billion projection presented by the lobby.

The BGC's Argument Against the Regulated Market

Grainne Hurst, CEO of the BGC, stated that money directed to illegal operators represents a loss for the sport and for public finances. In the statement, she said: "These operators do not pay taxes, do not fund anything, and are accountable to no one. Every pound they receive is a pound lost for British sport and for the Treasury."

Hurst added that illegal betting is advancing towards a figure of £1 billion per season and noted that the council supports measures aimed at keeping customers within the regulated market. His argument combines the protection of tax revenues with sports funding, although the specific estimate regarding the Premier League does not detail what portion would correspond to sports betting, which products would be included, or how criminal operators would be distinguished from other unauthorized platforms.

The BGC claims that the regulated market supports over 109,000 jobs, contributes USD $9.3 billion to the economy, and raises over USD $5.5 billion annually in taxes. The organization had already disseminated those same three figures in April, but the statement did not present a methodological update nor explained what proportion of those results could be affected by the growth of the illegal market.

An independent estimate offers a considerably lower point of comparison, although it covers all gambling products and not just football. The Office for Budget Responsibility calculated in November 2025 that recent tax changes would shift approximately USD $681 million of additional activity to the black market, a figure lower than the USD $1.09 billion that the BGC attributes solely to Premier League betting.

Clubs, Sponsorship, and Regulatory Changes

The 2026-2027 season is the first in the Premier League without betting brands on the front of match shirts. Clubs voluntarily agreed to this change in 2023, ending a market that was worth over USD $191 million per season.

The BGC supports the voluntary ban and has also backed the Government's plans to prevent clubs from receiving money from operators without a British license. The body wants the restriction to extend to all sports in the country, a proposal that would elevate the scope of the policy beyond the top division of English football.

Entain, a competitor in the sector, has pushed for a tougher stance against unlicensed sponsors through various initiatives. The company sent a letter from its CEO, Stella David, to Richard Masters, CEO of the Premier League, in February; in May, it submitted comments to the Independent Football Regulator, and subsequently, its legal director, Simon Zinger, wrote to executives of Burnley, Bournemouth, Fulham, Everton, Sunderland, and Wolverhampton Wanderers.

These actions show that the discussion is not limited to calculating the size of the black market, but also encompasses who can finance clubs and be associated with British competitions. For teams, sponsorships provide relevant income; for regulated operators, accepting advertising from unlicensed rivals can shift customers and activity outside a system subject to taxes and controls.

The overall regulation of gambling is also going through a period of uncertainty. Andy Burnham, the UK Prime Minister, is moving towards revoking the duty to "try to permit" established in the Gambling Act, a legal presumption that has influenced the granting of licenses for venues since 2005.

The initiative comes three weeks after Burnham took office, according to information released by the BGC. If successful, the change would modify one of the principles that have guided the authorization of gambling establishments for over two decades, while the Government attempts to balance access, oversight, revenue collection, and prevention of unlicensed operations.

What the Difference in Figures Means

The distance between the BGC's projection and the estimate from the Office for Budget Responsibility does not, by itself, demonstrate that one of the two figures is incorrect, as both address different questions. The former refers to Premier League bets that could be directed to unlicensed operators, while the latter estimates additional activity displaced to the black market across all products as a consequence of tax changes.

However, the comparison does raise a demand for transparency from the lobby: to explain the universe of bettors, the observed period, the sources used, and the model that converts general market data into an exclusive prediction for the competition. Without these elements, the public may know the announced size, but cannot assess its robustness or adequately compare it with official estimates.

The projected increase for 2027 links bettor behavior with tax policy. The BGC argues that the new 25% rate for remote betting could raise illegal Premier League bets to USD $1.36 billion, although the statement does not break down how much would correspond to a reduction in regulated bets, how much to new bettors, or how much to a change in operators' margins.

The debate will have consequences for clubs, betting companies, tax authorities, and fans, especially if the Government simultaneously moves forward with advertising restrictions and changes in licensing. For now, the most compelling data from the announcement is also the least publicly verifiable: a projection of USD $1.09 billion whose calculation method was not revealed.