Industry in Crisis: Activity Declined Again in June, According to UIA Estimates

The industry is struggling to recover and shows signs of weakness in June. Manufacturing activity recorded a year-on-year decline of nearly 1.8%, while, in the seasonally adjusted month-on-month comparison, it showed virtually no change compared to May (-0.2%), according to estimates from the Argentine Industrial Union (UIA).

The survey indicates that leading indicators reflect a mixed evolution among different manufacturing sectors, although "without changing the overall picture of low productive levels".

The data shows that construction has once again been one of the most affected sectors. In June, cement dispatches fell 2.7% compared to May, and the Construya Index dropped 2%. Both indicators remain well below 2022 levels, with accumulated declines of 24% and 30%, respectively. Monthly declines were also recorded in metalworking production (-0.3%) and steel production (-4.6%), activities that have yet to recover previous levels.

In the automotive sector, production remained virtually stable compared to the previous month (+0.2%), although it continues to be among the worst-performing categories of the year, with an accumulated decline of 18.3% compared to the same period in 2025. Within food and beverages, the performance was mixed, with production growth in beverages (+4.2%) and cattle slaughter (+5.3%), while dairy production and oilseed milling fell by 1.2% and 0.6%, respectively.

Among the few positive signals, the UIA highlighted that electricity consumption by large industrial users increased by 1.4% month-on-month and that industrial machinery registrations advanced 9.4%. However, this last indicator still remains below the levels observed in 2025 and 2022.

Additionally, the external front improved, with a 15.6% month-on-month increase in exports to Brazil and a 17.9% increase in foreign currency settlements from the agro-industrial complex.

Industrial production fell 5.7% year-on-year in May, although with a slight month-on-month improvement of 0.4% seasonally adjusted, according to INDEC. The contraction was widespread: 14 of the 16 industrial sectors recorded declines compared to May 2025.

The most pronounced declines corresponded to textiles (-26.2%), machinery and equipment (-23.4%), automobiles (-15.9%), and clothing, leather, and footwear (-14.7%). Food and beverages (-3%), basic metals (-4%), and non-metallic minerals (-2.3%) also declined.

In contrast, oil refining stood out again with a year-on-year growth of 19.4%, driven by activity in Vaca Muerta, consolidating itself as the best-performing sector within the industry.

In this context, during the first five months of 2026, production accumulated a decline of 3.1% compared to the same period last year and was 10% below 2022 levels.

Among the main factors explaining the decline are durable and semi-durable goods, which fell 22.5% year-on-year accumulated and explained a significant part of the general index's retreat, affected by lower domestic market demand and the performance of sectors such as automobiles and white goods. The clothing, leather, and footwear industries also continued to lag, with an accumulated decline of 15.3%.

In contrast, the mass consumption segment showed a slight accumulated improvement of 0.4%, driven by the production of pharmaceutical products, hygiene and cleaning items, and some food and beverages, while construction inputs had virtually no impact on the overall level of activity.

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