Potential Taxable Activities for Cryptocurrencies in 2025 Estimated at Approximately 73 Trillion Yen = Chainalysis

Blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis released a report on the 26th estimating that the potential taxable activities for cryptocurrencies (virtual currencies) on the global on-chain in 2025 will reach at least $457 billion (approximately 73 trillion yen, based on an exchange rate of 160 yen to 1 dollar). Of this, the United States accounts for about $112.6 billion, making it the largest by country.

The analysis focused on six blockchains: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Tron, BNB Smart Chain, and Base. The taxable activities include realized gains from cryptocurrency trading, as well as revenues from mining, staking, lending, gambling, and payments made using cryptocurrencies.

Regionally, North America topped the list with $134.6 billion, followed by the European Union (EU) with $125.1 billion and East Asia with $54.7 billion.

Chainalysis also compared these figures with the fiscal scales of various countries. In Portugal, the potential taxable activities amount to approximately $2 billion, which corresponds to about 201% of the government's projected fiscal deficit of $1 billion in 2025. In Nigeria, the figure is around $4.4 billion, accounting for 12.3% of government revenue of $35.5 billion.

However, the company considers this estimate to be a lower bound. The analysis is limited to six blockchains, and it does not adequately capture off-chain transactions that are completed within centralized exchanges (CEX) or certain transaction types and platforms. Additionally, tax exemptions in various countries are not individually considered.

On the other hand, the tax reporting system for cryptocurrencies is being developed globally. The OECD's "Crypto Asset Reporting Framework (CARF)" requires cryptocurrency service providers to report customer information and transaction data to tax authorities. 47 jurisdictions are expected to start the first information exchange by 2027.

According to Chainalysis, only 14% of the potential taxable activities analyzed on-chain could be events subject to CARF. The remaining 86% includes transactions on decentralized exchanges (DEX), peer-to-peer (P2P) transfers, on-chain earnings, and cryptocurrency payments, which represent a significant portion of activities that cannot be captured by CARF.