The dollar takes a breather after the price fixing for bond payments linked to the exchange rate

The wholesale dollar takes a breather this Thursday after the strong pressure exerted by the "fixing" that occurred this Wednesday, that is, the establishment of the reference exchange rate for the payment of dollar-linked securities amounting to nearly $2.6 billion that mature at the end of the month.

The wholesale quote, which had risen in recent sessions to break the barrier of $1,500 defended for weeks through official intervention, is now operating with a very slight decrease of $1. Thus, it stands at $1,513 for sale.

The retail dollar, meanwhile, is stable at $1,485 for purchase and $1,535 for sale at Banco Nación.

In the parallel markets, the trend is mixed. The blue dollar falls 0.6% and is sold at $1,555, according to a survey by Ámbito in Buenos Aires caves. The MEP drops 0.2% to $1,540.43. In contrast, the cash with settlement (CCL) rises 0.1% to $1,603.51.

The pressure from the "fixing" was strongly reflected in the hedging market. According to operators, there was official presence in both futures and dollar-linked bonds. The traded volume in futures reached $3.572 billion, well above the approximately $1 billion daily that had been traded on average during August and the highest record since May 2025.

Martín de la Fuente from BAVSA also highlighted that the traded volume in the Free Exchange Market reached $679 million, compared to an average of $510 million so far this month.

Despite the increased exchange rate pressure, the BCRA ended the session with purchases of $61 million, the highest daily amount since August 20. On Tuesday, it had acquired only $9 million.

Andrés Reschini from F2 Soluciones Financieras considered that the high intervention was expected due to the volume of dollar-linked securities pending maturity. However, he stated that, even though the exchange rate could be higher without official intervention, for now, there is no demand for hedging that anticipates a much larger jump.

For several weeks, the $1,500 mark had functioned as a sort of informal ceiling for the wholesale dollar. The market detected interventions in futures, offers of dollar-linked instruments, and a more restrictive management of pesos to prevent the quote from exceeding that level.

This week, however, the Government allowed the dollar to cross that barrier and remain above it. For a large part of the City, the movement reflects a relaxation of the strategy rather than an abandonment of exchange intervention.

The Government continues to offer coverage and manage liquidity, but has stopped strictly defending a specific nominal value for the dollar.

Behind the change appears another factor that worries the market: the level of interest rates. The lower availability of pesos has recently led short rates to levels not seen since February, making financing more expensive and increasing volatility.

In this scenario, some analysts believe that allowing a slightly higher dollar may help ease the rates in pesos, although with the risk of generating greater pressure on inflation.

Gabriel Caamaño, director of Outlier, stated that, once the ad hoc ceiling of $1,500 is relaxed, "they should ease the rate in pesos and its volatility."

Federico Glustein, for his part, suggested that behind the dynamics lies a dilemma for the Government: to maintain a contained dollar to contribute to the deceleration of inflation or to allow lower rates to favor economic activity.

Pablo Repetto, Head of Research at Aurum Valores, downplayed the break of the $1,500 mark and defined it as a "relatively normal correction," while José Ignacio Bano stated that, in the long term, it is reasonable for the dollar and inflation to maintain some relationship.

Thus, having surpassed the symbolic level of $1,500, the market begins to seek what the new exchange equilibrium will be. Attention will be focused on how much margin the Government is willing to give to the dollar and, above all, whether this greater flexibility manages to reduce the volatility of rates without jeopardizing the disinflation process.